waiting for PDK:
I love my 911, have never been in a Tesla and suffer from early onset old man-itis, generally disliking new tech. However this thread should be:
Porsche Mission E - the end of Porsche?
Perhaps a Churchillian beginning of the end.
The Taycan may be fantastic, handle like a GT3 and recharge in 2 minutes. It won't matter. With electric cars and GPS, speed limits will be automatically enforced and everybody will have sub 4 second 0-100kph times for that one highway on ramp you need it. All cars will be virtually silent, so it will be very hard to impress teenagers by revving your motor in Knightsbridge. Young people don't car about cars, as evidenced by the number seeking drivers licenses. With self driving, shared vehicles, or rent by the hour services we're on the verge of a titanic shift, conceptually similar to the shift from horses to horseless carriages. (The convenience, noise and pollution arguments are even similar.) VW may have a pile of money and the Germans may be investing like crazy. They probably won't survive. A dozen years ago Apple didn't make phones and nobody had heard of an app. The biggest vehicle supplier in 20 years is likely a company that doesn't exist, but will buy generic sleds and rent them out by the trip, day or like to a population that won't miss the hassles of driving. A couple of car manufacturers will survive selling status symbols or fun toys, just like there are still horse breeders. This leaves room for Rolls and a couple of sports car brands who can live off their glory days. Ferrari, Morgan, Lotus, Lamborghini. Ironically in this context the Cayenne kills Porsche as it is now seen as a rich person's SUV brand, not a LeMans champion.
Is anyone here a motorcycle rider; I'm sure there are similar arguments on Ducati and Harley Davidson forums.
What is the product diffusion rate for EVs? That's an essential point in your argument. On the road today, in many parts of the United States, exist cars over the age of twenty or twenty-five years of age. Unless there is legislation banning, or phasing out, the internal combustion automobile over a set period of time, your dystopian view won't occur in the near term. In the EU and China, however, your viewpoint does hold some merit and consideration as major city centers are phasing in the banning of older vehicles.
The Apple iPhone won in the marketplace against the incumbents because it was a complete product, superior to the then offerings by Nokia, Motorola, and Ericsson. Jobs had initially worked with Motorola to develop an iPod/cellphone integration product. The product didn't meet Jobs' high expectations and he tasked Apple with developing a technology convergence product combining a music player, Internet browser, email reader, and cellphone. It won in the marketplace because it was better than the existing products. The same can't be said about today's EVs, while coming close to the overall packaging efficiencies of the internal combustion engine, it still has shortcomings that limit macro-acceptance amongst all potential customers. That will be resolved over time and this is what allows other automakers to transition to EVs.
Nissan was a first-mover in this space along with Tesla. Tesla may maintain an early lead based solely on name recognition but internal issues within the company limits it appeal to the vast majority of market participants who would rather make a capital purchase from a known, and financially-viable, automaker. Nissan too is financially stricken and its longterm outlook is questionable. Toyota and Volkswagen are in enviable positions holding large cash balances and deep R&D abilities. For many years, Volkswagen Group's expenditures in R&D was one to the greatest amongst all multi-national corporations. Toyota too has significant R&D assets starting with deep research in hybrids, which is readily transferrable to EVs.
General Motors is another potential dominant player in the EV market. Ford is licensing technology, i.e., MEB, from Volkswagen. This move is extremely shrewd for Volkswagen as production volume will quickly drive EV component costs to parity, and below, with ICEs. Tesla, of course, doesn't have the scale advantages and is wedded to a particular set of technologies for battery pack developments. This is one of the pitfalls of vertical integration, but Musk felt it was necessary to emulate the business Model of Henry Ford and the Model T. What worked over a hundred years ago does not work today as flexibility of competition amongst suppliers provide cost advantages to the OEM.
Winners: Toyota, Volkswagen Group, and General Motors. Mercedes and BMW will remain niche players.
Losers: Nissan, Mazda, Jaguar, and FCA.
Neutral: PSA, Tesla, and Ford.